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<Research>M Stanley Predicts 3% Decline in Office Rental Rates This Yr, Prefers Office Sector Over Retail Among Homebuilders
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Hong Kong homebuilders showed a preference for office over retail sector, Morgan Stanley issued a research report saying. Although office vacancy rates remained high, they are improving, with Central District expected to benefit first.

Regarding Hong Kong offices, Morgan Stanley preferred Central over non-core areas, with Hongkong Land and HYSAN DEV (00014.HK) favored over WHARF REIC (01997.HK).

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In terms of retail, the broker liked Chinese luxury retailers over Hong Kong retailers, with HANG LUNG PPT (00101.HK) favored over WHARF REIC and LINK REIT (00823.HK); SWIREPROPERTIES (01972.HK) is preferred over WHARF REIC. The latest ratings and target prices of the sector are listed in a separate table.

Morgan Stanley forecasted a 3% increase in Central rental rates, while overall office rental rates are expected to decline by 3%, with retail sales estimated to grow by 3%.

Morgan Stanley still recommended investors to avoid WHARF REIC due to risks of market share loss and tenant retention, etc.. Of which, BABA-W (09988.HK) planned to relocate from Times Square after acquiring the Grade A office building One Causeway Bay in Causeway Bay in October.

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