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<Research>Nomura Raises 2024 HK Yearly GDP Growth Forecast to 2.7%
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Nomura wrote in a research report that Hong Kong's GDP growth in 1Q24 came as a surprise, with strong export demand giving room for upside. The broker raised its yearly GDP growth forecast for this year to 2.7%, while growth for 2Q is predicted to slow down moderately from 2.7% to 2.6%. According to the report, based on the preliminary data released by the Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong's real GDP growth in 1Q24 is 2.7% YoY, much higher than broker and consensus forecasts. On a seasonally adjusted basis, real GDP growth in 1Q24 rose to 2.3% QoQ. The YoY rebound was driven by strong export demand, with net exports making the largest contribution, while domestic demand grew moderately. Personal consumption expenditure growth weakened, government spending fell sharply again, and private investment growth slowed as the low base receded. Nomura modestly revised up the annual GDP growth rate for 2024 to 2.7% from 2.4% on the back of the sharp uptick in 1Q GDP data. Nevertheless, the upward revision was relatively small, as the low base is likely to subside in 2H, which implied that the main driver of external demand for 1Q is unlikely to last long. AAStocks Financial News |
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