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RBA Keeps Target Rate Unchanged at 4.35%, in Line with Forecast; AUD/ USD Stabilizes
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, in line with market expectations. AUD exchange rates stabilise, with AUD/ USD currentl...
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RBA Keeps Target Rate Unchanged at 4.35%, in Line with Forecast; AUD/ USD Stabilizes
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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, in line with market expectations. AUD exchange rates stabilise, with AUD/ USD currently at 0.6612.

RBA noted in its statement that inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. But the pace of decline has slowed in the most recent data, with inflation still some way above the midpoint of the 2-3% target range. Over the year to April, the monthly CPI indicator rose by 3.6% in headline terms, and by 4.1% excluding volatile items and holiday travel, which was similar to its pace in December 2023.

Broader data indicated continuing excess demand in the economy, coupled with elevated domestic cost pressures, for both labour and non-labour inputs. Conditions in the labour market eased further over the past month but remain tighter than is consistent with sustained full employment and inflation at target. Wages growth appeared to have peaked but still above the level that can be sustained given trend productivity growth. Recent data revisions suggested that consumption over the past year was stronger than previously suggested. At the same time, output growth has been subdued, and consumption per capita has been declining, as households restrained their discretionary expenditure and inflation weighed on real incomes.

RBA added that the economic outlook remained uncertain and recent data have demonstrated that the process of returning inflation to target is unlikely to be smooth. Returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remained the central bank's highest priority. To date, medium-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.

RBA concluded that the path of interest rates also remained uncertain and it would not rule anything in or out.



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