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Fitch Bohua: Value of Energy Metals Cannot Avert Mean Regression Amid Overproduction
Fitch Bohua, a wholly owned subsidiary of Fitch Ratings in China, expected in a report that global lithium, cobalt and nickel resources would record production growth rates of abou...
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Fitch Bohua: Value of Energy Metals Cannot Avert Mean Regression Amid Overproduction
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Fitch Bohua, a wholly owned subsidiary of Fitch Ratings in China, expected in a report that global lithium, cobalt and nickel resources would record production growth rates of about 40%, 7-12% and 10-15% respectively in 2024, with loose supply fundamentals set to continue. Even if energy metals have a chance to rebound this year, it is unlikely that the trend demand growth rate will be reversed after experiencing high growth, and cobalt and nickel are facing a more severe demand reality than lithium.

Fitch Bohua added that the overcapacity of lithium, cobalt and nickel prices resulted in a lack of momentum for a trend breakthrough, and it is expected that in 2024, the price pivot of mainland battery-grade lithium carbonate, LME cobalt futures, and LME nickel futures will fall to the levels of RMB90,000-RMB95,000 per tonne, US$25,000-US$26,000 per tonne, and US$16,500-US$17,500 per tonne.

A significant downward shift in the price pivot for lithium, cobalt and nickel will inevitably lead to a weakening of the credit quality of energy metal producers, Fitch Bohua commented.

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